@TonyVladusich@mathstodon.xyz Very good question. There *is* a methodology that plots discoveries plus some measure of the diffficulty of the discovery over time, looks at the curve, and guesses at the number yet undiscovered, and when done right, it has had some amount of confirmation as a decent approach at least some times. In the absence of a mention of using that methodology, though, it sounds more like a vague feeling than something evidence-based. @johncarlosbaez@mathstodon.xyz